Now that the Supreme Court has begun hearing three days of arguments on challenges to the 2010 health care law, it’s a good time to review the bidding on where public opinion stands.
A new New York Times/CBS News poll conducted March 21-25 finds that 47 percent of those surveyed oppose the law while 36 percent support it. When it comes to those who “strongly” approve or disapprove of the legislation, those against outnumber those for it by nearly 2-to-1.
A majority of Democrats approve of the law — though it’s a modest 56 percent majority — while three-quarters disapprove.
The Times/CBS News result differs from a Pew Research Center survey conducted March 7-11 which found Americans almost evenly divided, with 47 percent approving of the law and 45 percent disapproving. Eighty-four percent of Republicans disapproved while 76 percent of Democrats approved. Independents were roughly split down the middle.
But the Pew survey did find majority disapproval of one of the law’s key provisions which is also a central issue before the Supreme Court — namely, the government’s right to impose an individual mandate under which Americans who do not get health coverage must pay a penalty. Fifty-six percent disapprove of this provision, which takes effect in 2014, while 41 percent support the mandate. Under the law, uninsured Americans would get financial subsidies if they could not afford coverage.
But an interesting twist to the Pew survey is how the results change based on wording of the questions. When the question is posed this way — “People who cannot afford it [coverage] will receive financial help from the government” — the margin of disapproval falls to 49 percent to 47 percent. But if the question is worded “People who do not buy [insurance] will pay a penalty” — the margin of opposition rises to 63 percent to 34 percent.
Asked what Americans wanted to see done about the law, 38 percent wanted to repeal it, 33 percent wanted to expand it and 20 percent wanted to leave it as-is, with 9 percent undecided.
Like Pew, a Kaiser Health Tracking poll conducted Feb. 29-March 5 also found the public divided on the overall law. Forty-one percent saw it very or somewhat favorably, while 40 percent were in the very or somewhat unfavorably camp, with 19 percent undecided.
As to the law’s future, Kaiser said that 23 percent wanted to repeal and not replace the law, 18 percent wanted to repeal it and replace it with a Republican alternative, 28 percent wanted to expand it and 18 percent wanted to leave it as it is.
Should the Supreme Court rule the law is unconstitutional, 80 percent of those who told Kaiser they had an unfavorable view of the legislation said such a finding would not make them feel more positive about it. Conversely, among those who view the law favorably, 41 percent said they would continue to hold that opinion even if the court ruled the law unconstitutional while 40 percent said they would see it unfavorably. Thirty-two percent said it wouldn’t change their feelings. Nineteen percent were undecided.
Fifty-five percent said they would be angry or disappointed if the Court upheld the individual mandate compared to 42 percent who said they’d be angry or disappointed if the Court found the mandate to be unconstitutional.
There’s a comprehensive analysis of a range of surveys on public opinion and the health care law at Pew’s site.